Summary
Autodesk ended fiscal 2015 with a mixed quarter. Revenue for the fourth quarter was $664.6 million, up 13.3% from the prior-year quarter. Full-year revenue reached $2.51 billion, up 10.5% from the prior fiscal year. The top line grew, but profitability fell sharply. Fourth-quarter operating income was $14.0 million, down 72.9% from the prior-year quarter. Net income was $11.5 million, down 78.7%. Diluted EPS was $0.05, down 78.3%. For the full fiscal year, operating income was $120.7 million, down 57.6%. Net income was $81.8 million, down 64.2%. Diluted EPS was $0.35, down 65.0%. Gross margin for the fourth quarter was 86.5%, down 1.2 percentage points. Operating margin was 2.1%, down 6.7 percentage points. Full-year gross margin was 86.4%, down 1.6 percentage points. Full-year operating margin was 4.8%, down 7.7 percentage points.
The business model transition is reshaping the financials. Billings increased 18% in fiscal 2015 compared with the prior fiscal year. Revenue grew 10%. The difference of 8 percentage points came from an increase in deferred revenue. The current portion of deferred revenue was $900.8 million, up 29.4% from the prior-year quarter. Total subscriptions were 2.23 million, up from 1.85 million. Suites revenue increased 17% for the fiscal year and represented 36% of revenue, up from 34%. Revenue from emerging economies increased 14% and represented 15% of net revenue for both fiscal 2015 and fiscal 2014. Net subscription billings increased 22%. Autodesk discontinued upgrades effective March 6, 2015. It also announced that new commercial seats of most standalone software products will be available only by desktop subscription beginning February 1, 2016.
Cash generation remained a bright spot. Operating cash flow for fiscal 2015 was $708.1 million, up 25.7% from the prior fiscal year. The company repurchased 6.9 million shares for $372.4 million during fiscal 2015. Backlog increased by $20.7 million, from $19.7 million at January 31, 2014 to $40.4 million at January 31, 2015. Days sales outstanding was 63 at January 31, 2015, compared with 66 at January 31, 2014. On a non-GAAP basis, net income was $272.3 million, diluted EPS was $1.17, operating margin was 15%, and gross margin was 89%.
Guidance points to continued pressure. For the first quarter of fiscal 2016, Autodesk expects non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.25 to $0.30. For fiscal 2016, net billings are expected to increase by approximately 3% to 5% compared with fiscal 2015. Net revenue is also expected to increase by approximately 3% to 5%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be $1.05 to $1.20. Non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be approximately 13% to 15%. The company expects to add approximately 375,000 to 425,000 net new subscriptions in fiscal 2016. Management notes that traditional perpetual license revenue is expected to decline without a corresponding decrease in expenses over the next 12 to 24 months. Risks include foreign exchange fluctuations, weak global economic conditions, geopolitical risk in emerging economies, competition, limited intellectual property protection, software piracy, acquisition integration challenges, revenue recognition judgments, goodwill impairment, and tax positions that may be challenged by authorities.
Forecast
Reported figures
GAAP, from SEC filings| Metric | Q4 FY2015 | Q3 FY2015 | QoQ | Q4 FY2014 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $664.6M | $618.0M | +7.5% | $586.6M | +13.3% |
| Gross profit | $575.1M | $532.0M | +8.1% | $514.7M | +11.7% |
| Gross margin | 86.5% | 86.1% | +0.5 pp | 87.7% | -1.2 pp |
| Research & development | $191.5M | $183.9M | +4.1% | $162.4M | +17.9% |
| Sales & marketing | $289.9M | $245.1M | +18.3% | $232.3M | +24.8% |
| General & administrative | $70.4M | $78.9M | -10.8% | $62.0M | +13.5% |
| Total operating expenses | $561.1M | $517.4M | +8.4% | $463.0M | +21.2% |
| Operating income (loss) | $14.0M | $14.6M | -4.1% | $51.7M | -72.9% |
| Operating margin | 2.1% | 2.4% | -0.3 pp | 8.8% | -6.7 pp |
| Net income (loss) | $11.5M | $10.7M | +7.5% | $53.9M | -78.7% |
| Net margin | 1.7% | 1.7% | ±0.0 pp | 9.2% | -7.5 pp |
| Diluted EPS | $0.05 | $0.05 | ±$0.00 | $0.23 | -$0.18 |
Risks
Autodesk is accelerating its shift to cloud and subscription offerings, discontinuing upgrades after fiscal 2015 and making most standalone software available only by desktop subscription beginning February 1, 2016. MD&A states traditional perpetual license revenue is expected to decline without a corresponding decrease in expenses over the next 12 to 24 months; FY2015 income from operations decreased 58% and operating margin fell to 5% from 13%, while FY2015 Q4 operating income decreased 72.9% and net income decreased 78.7% versus the prior-year quarter.
International net revenue represented 71% and 70% of total net revenue in fiscal 2015 and 2014. MD&A states fiscal 2015 net revenue increased 10% as reported but would have increased 12% on a constant currency basis, with foreign exchange rate changes negatively impacting revenue.
Tech Data Corporation and its global affiliates accounted for 25% and 24% of total net revenue in fiscal 2015 and 2014. A significant disruption or deterioration in this distributor relationship could negatively impact sales to end users and financial results.
Autodesk announced Spark, a 3D printing software platform, and Ember, an Autodesk-branded 3D printer. The filing notes limited experience designing, developing, and selling hardware and no experience developing and selling printers, a nascent market, and competitors with superior experience and resources.
Combined revenue from AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT, excluding suites, represented 28% and 30% of total net revenue in fiscal 2015 and 2014. Any factor adversely affecting sales of these flagship products would likely harm financial results.
A significant portion of revenue is generated through maintenance revenue, and customers have no obligation to attach maintenance to an initial license or renew after the initial term. Decreases in attach or renewal rates, or a reduction in new licenses sold, would negatively impact future maintenance revenue.
Autodesk acquired Delcam in fiscal 2015, which contributed to a 17% increase in MFG segment revenue. The filing cites risks of assimilating products, operations, and personnel, inheriting liabilities, testing internal controls, and diverting management attention.
Cost of subscription revenue increased 40% in fiscal 2015 compared to fiscal 2014, driven by higher employee-related costs and an increase in cloud services-related expenses. The filing lists increases in cloud services-related expenses as a factor that could cause quarterly financial results to fluctuate.
Autodesk faces increased litigation activity and regulatory inquiries, and global privacy and data protection regimes may impose inconsistent obligations. The filing notes that claims or regulatory actions could result in costly defense, fines, or orders to change business practices.
The filing cites weak global economic conditions, volatile credit markets, high unemployment, and government debt issues that may cause customers to delay or reduce technology purchases, reduce workforces, and purchase fewer licenses and maintenance contracts.
Media and Entertainment segment revenue decreased 4% in fiscal 2015 compared to fiscal 2014, with Creative Finishing revenue down 11% and Animation revenue down 2%. The filing attributes the decline to general decrease in M&E industry end-market demand and the business model transition.
Revenue from emerging economies increased 14% in fiscal 2015 and represented 15% of net revenue. The filing cites significant challenges in these countries, including economic volatility, geopolitical risk, limited intellectual property protection, and software piracy.
SaaS KPIs
All quarters →Total Subscriptions
Deferred subscription revenue
Summary, forecast, risks and KPIs are extracted from Autodesk, Inc.'s SEC filings for Q4 FY2015 (10-Q / 10-K and the 8-K earnings release); GAAP figures in the summary are checked against the reported XBRL data. They can contain errors; the filings are authoritative. Processed Oct 19, 2026.